There is giddy anticipation surrounding Justin Herbert’s third year in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers have a franchise quarterback, a superstar, a leader, and a player with perhaps the most smooth and fluid delivery in the NFL.
And you can book it.
DraftKings has a wealth of Chargers season-long props surrounding Herbert, and Caesars reports significant early action on the team.
Here is the Draft Kings overview:
Justin Herbert, Chargers prop odds at DraftKings
Herbert is at the top of the list, the chalk, to throw the most touchdown passes this year. He’s at an excellent price, +550.
Herbert tossed 38 TDs last year, second only to Tom Brady’s 43 and Matthew Stafford’s 41. Brady had to pass out of necessity for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Stafford had both a dream season and the breakout year from Cooper Kupp. That combo led the Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl championship.
Herbert also had 5,014 passing yards, second only to the GOAT, who had 5,316. That’s what makes Herbert’s favored status of +650 to lead the NFL in passing yards intriguing. A changing of the guard may be imminent. Brady could be sliding a little.
Will Herbert have a game in which he throws for at least 500 yards this year? You know it could happen. That’s +700.
Will Herbert lead the league in passing yards AND the Chargers win their division?
Yes is +1000. It might take the yardage number to create the division title.
Will Herbert reach exceed 499.5 passing yards and Austin Ekeler get to 800 rushing yards? Yes is +350. It would have cashed last year as Ekeler reached 911 yards.
This bet expects a duplication of last year, which may be asking a lot.
Yet, from any direction, in numerous areas, props reveal the belief that the Chargers will light up the offensive tote board.
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told mylasports.com:
“There is the feeling now that this is Herbert’s team. We’ve got him at the top for passing yards and touchdowns.
“This kid is a great athlete and he also has Ekeler to throw to. Ekeler catches more balls out of the backfield than most wide receivers. Ekeler is a great help for Herbert, as is Mike Williams.’
As was Williams’ 1.146 reception yards last year. Williams and Ekeler (647 reception yards) combined for 1,783 receiving yards in 2021.
Why the Chargers hype?
Avello observes a carryover expectation from Herbert’s acrobatics that nearly put the Chargers in the post-season last year. They were knocked out on the final play of an overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Herbert completed a slew of fourth-down passes late in the game, and that may have been his national-emergence moment in the pros.
“Players like Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are just different than most of the young guys who come in the league. They caught on quickly and they expect to have success. I remember thinking not too long ago about when we would finally get past the Brady’s, the Brees’s, the same guys being the focus of the quarterbacks.
“I think we are at that point now. These players are special.”
And their teams bear that out. Burrow already has been in the Super Bowl in just two seasons. Mahomes has a ring. Allen is knocking on the door.
And here comes Herbert, perhaps the best pure passer of them all.
“We are getting a lot of money on them over 10 for their win total,” Avello said of the Chargers. “We only have them 14-1 to win the Super Bowl and just 11-5 to win a stacked division (that includes the Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs and Russell Wilson-led Denver Broncos).
“Expectations for the Chargers are high, and I think with good reason.”
More 2022 Chargers prop bets
A few other props indicate high expectations and may tantalize bettors.
The Chargers have one of the highest chalk numbers to have a winning record, -450.
The stage of elimination forecast provides a few interesting entry points.
The Chargers to:
- Miss the playoffs is +130.
- Lose in the Wild Card Round is +275
- Lose in the Divisional Round +380
- Lose in the Conference Championship +700
- Lose in the Super Bowl is +1200
- Win the Super Bowl is +1400.
There are a couple of ways for bettors to tap into this. The book expects the Chargers to reach the playoffs and get knocked out early.
If gamblers agree with that trajectory, they can try to jump on at least one mini-streak the Chargers would need to make the post-season.
They can also play a hedge.
Let’s say someone put $100 on the Chargers to lose in the conference championship.
The Chargers reach the conference championship. You have $700 profit coming if they lose. But this bet could be five months old. You want something to show for it.
A bettor could take a smaller guarantee, betting the Chargers on the moneyline once that conference final game comes. At a price of +100, that would ensure the futures bet didn’t lose. At a greater price or with a bigger bet, a small profit can be assured.
Nothing wrong with locking in a profit for gamblers who wager often.
Here’s one more tantalizing consideration for Herbert. It is value added.
In the Futures Parlay section, here are some possibilities. Call it the Herbert And club…
Herbert to throw for the most passing yards and for Cooper Kupp to lead the league in reception yards is +7500, or 75-1.
Herbert and Ja’Marr Chasse is +8000 or 80-1.
Major values abound up the line, depending on whom Herbert hooks up with.
This pattern compares to keying a horse on top in a major race. If Herbert is the key, find the right receiver with him, and you have what amounts to a generous exact price.
Caesars Sportsbook reports a similar outlook on the Chargers.
Bettors are also strongly backing the Chargers to go over their win total. Los Angeles is positioned at 10, with the over-favored at -130 and the under at +110.
The Chargers are one of nine teams with a double-digit win total, yet the over is still getting pounded with 89.3% of the tickets (sixth-most lopsided over by tickets) and 91.7% of the handle (seventh-most lopsided by handle). The Bills are the only other team with a double-digit win total that has received at least 70% for both of the tickets and handle on their over.
Some bettors are even taking it one step further, as the Chargers have nabbed the second-most money to finish with the NFL’s best record. Only the Indianapolis Colts have drawn more money in this market at Caesars Sportsbook. The Chargers are tied for the seventh-lowest to have the NFL’s best record at 15/1 with the Ravens, 49ers and Broncos.
The Chargers are not only going to be fun to watch this year.
They may be profitable.